Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
