Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
